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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MAG.Yolowin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dark Horseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MAG.Yolo

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
czy · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
czy · 4 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
czy · 3 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
出省 · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
出省 · 2 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
TrazaM · 2 games
0%

Dark Horse

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
sheep · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sheep · 7 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
0%
Io
Iooften banned
sheep · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
sheep · 3 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%
Techies
Techies
sheep · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 607 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
369 picks · 387 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
364 picks · 140 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
356 picks · 467 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 346 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 580 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 632 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 162 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Dark Horse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Dark Horse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:25
MAG.Yolo 45%Dark Horse 55%
The model gave 55% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by MAG.Yolo in 48:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingRA1NCLOUD
54% · 64 games48% · 121 game
Tinysheep
Tiny
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiTrazaM
50% · 6 games36% · 14 games
Witch DoctorUndyne_
Witch Doctor
Dark Willow
Dark Willowczy
58% · 65 games
Game 2prediction missed38:23
MAG.Yolo 41%Dark Horse 59%
The model gave 59% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by MAG.Yolo in 49:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyRA1NCLOUD
47% · 80 games53% · 54 games
PudgeUndyne_
Pudge
Batrider
BatriderTrazaM
45% · 72 games53% · 190 games
Dark Willowsheep
Dark Willow
Rubick
Rubickczy
48% · 92 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Horse · 60%
Series resultMAG.Yolo 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2