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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
MANTA Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MANTA Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Neon Esports

Silencer
Silencer
Hated · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hated · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Enryu · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
760 picks · 609 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 468 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1004 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 380 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 939 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
394 picks · 595 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
392 picks · 603 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
387 picks · 664 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:18
MANTA Esports 32%Neon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:10.
Game 2prediction missed43:32
MANTA Esports 32%Neon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 40:13.
Game 3prediction correct8:42
MANTA Esports 32%Neon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 68%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3