Школьная лига 2022 · BO3
result vs predictionМ"МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3"win 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
М"МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 18"loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3"
No games played over 6 months.
МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 18"
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 244 bans
Marci
323 picks · 560 bans
Undying
286 picks · 475 bans
Tusk
272 picks · 180 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 422 bans
Primal Beast
239 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 287 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3"
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3"
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" 50%МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 18" 50%
The model gave 50% on МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" — the game was taken by МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 18".
Game 2prediction correct
МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" 50%МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 18" 50%
The model gave 50% on МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" — the game was taken by МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3".
Game 3prediction correct
МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" 50%МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 18" 50%
The model gave 50% on МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" — the game was taken by МАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3".
Model check result
Model favoriteМАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" · 50%
Series resultМАОУ "ЛИЦЕЙ № 3" 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3