European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8 Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 10 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
B8 Esports
Faceless Voidoften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 9 games
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 9 games
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
StoneBank · 9 games
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 8 games
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
260 picks · 328 bans
Dark Willow
250 picks · 114 bans
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 222 bans
Treant Protector
213 picks · 479 bans
Phoenix
211 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
200 picks · 384 bans
Nature's Prophet
192 picks · 435 bans
Muerta
185 picks · 276 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
MarsBet Team 52%B8 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 53:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit BreakerMr. Luck
Naga SirenLowskill
MuertaOtaker
InvokerDendi
WeaverLeBronDota
TidehunterStoneBank
Tuskvelheor
PhoenixMary_y
63% · 4 games
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
Game 2prediction correct24:33
MarsBet Team 49%B8 Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 39:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidOtaker
Chaos KnightLowskill
Nature's Prophetvelheor
EarthshakerDendi
Legion CommanderMr. Luck
TidehunterStoneBank
LionLeBronDota
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
43% · 111 games
PhoenixMary_y
Game 3prediction missed24:51
MarsBet Team 52%B8 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightOtaker
LifestealerLowskill
Wraith KingMr. Luck
EarthshakerDendi
Vengeful Spiritvelheor
Night StalkerStoneBank
MuertaLeBronDota
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
44% · 64 games
PugnaMary_y
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 51%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3