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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
55%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 6 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 6 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 6 games
67%

B8 Esports

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 11 games
82%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
StoneBank · 11 games
73%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kidaro · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 339 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
242 picks · 114 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 475 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
212 picks · 299 bans
45%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
201 picks · 209 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 299 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 419 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
197 picks · 362 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 59%
Hero pool strength61% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:20
MarsBet Team 43%B8 Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 27:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightOtaker
57% · 49 games54% · 54 games
Naga SirenLowskill
Naga Siren
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMr. Luck
49% · 63 games44% · 116 games
PangolierDendi
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMitch
46% · 136 games52% · 44 games
Wraith KingStoneBank
Wraith King
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
46% · 56 games43% · 3 games
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
Shadow Shaman
54% · 87 games
PugnaMary_y
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct8:17
MarsBet Team 44%B8 Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 21:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreOtaker
45% · 48 games52% · 132 games
MorphlingLowskill
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMr. Luck
55% · 144 games44% · 102 games
TidehunterStoneBank
Tidehunter
Weaver
WeaverMitch
50% · 46 games45% · 88 games
EarthshakerDendi
Earthshaker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
58% · 119 games48% · 24 games
ChenMary_y
Chen
48% · 11 games
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 62%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2