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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Keyd Starswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Mr. Luck · 3 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 3 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 3 games
0%

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
FCR · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Kingrd · 7 games
29%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
FCR · 6 games
83%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kingrd · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 5 games
20%
Windranger
Windranger
4nalog · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
309 picks · 153 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
219 picks · 287 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 415 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
196 picks · 389 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
192 picks · 109 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
188 picks · 273 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
185 picks · 354 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
173 picks · 247 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:50
MarsBet Team 48%Keyd Stars 52%
The model gave 52% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
49% · 277 games54% · 139 games
Faceless VoidCostabile
Faceless Void
Ursa
UrsaOtaker
51% · 134 games48% · 123 games
Invoker4nalog
Invoker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMr. Luck
52% · 133 games49% · 138 games
MagnusFCR
Magnus
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLeBronDota
49% · 215 games48% · 196 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorJeezy
56% · 264 games44% · 427 games
TuskKingrd
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct13:45
MarsBet Team 47%Keyd Stars 53%
The model gave 53% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 27:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosMo13ei
71% · 3 games55% · 103 games
Templar AssassinCostabile
Templar Assassin
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeOtaker
48% · 209 games49% · 70 games
Keeper of the Light4nalog
Keeper of the Light
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
53% · 79 games44% · 43 games
KunkkaFCR
Kunkka
Invoker
InvokerJeezy
44% · 106 games51% · 119 games
Nature's ProphetKingrd
Nature's Prophet
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
47% · 68 games56% · 130 games
Treant ProtectorKJ
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 56%
Series resultKeyd Stars 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2