ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 1:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Krupka winnersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 9 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 6 games
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Krupka winners
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 186 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
176 picks · 75 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
152 picks · 245 bans
Phoenix
151 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:17
MarsBet Team 55%Krupka winners 45%
The model gave 55% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 43:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 55%
Series resultMarsBet Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1