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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
55%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 7 games
29%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
LeBronDota · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
40%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
38%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
dEsire · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 333 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
242 picks · 117 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 476 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
215 picks · 297 bans
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
207 picks · 215 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 368 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
197 picks · 293 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 429 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:38
MarsBet Team 44%KZ TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightOtaker
58% · 77 games41% · 42 games
MuertaFocus
Muerta
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMr. Luck
56% · 73 games46% · 31 game
Dragon KnightW1sh-
Dragon Knight
Lion
LionLeBronDota
47% · 52 games53% · 41 game
EnigmaSkyLark
Enigma
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMitch
49% · 81 game54% · 86 games
Treant ProtectorSsaSpartan
Treant Protector
44% · 83 games
TinyAstral
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed34:22
MarsBet Team 43%KZ TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 41:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOtaker
53% · 104 games54% · 100 games
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaMr. Luck
55% · 98 games54% · 69 games
UrsaFocus
Ursa
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLeBronDota
53% · 204 games46% · 79 games
BroodmotherSkyLark
Broodmother
Jakiro
JakiroMitch
45% · 34 games44% · 124 games
PhoenixAstral
Phoenix
42% · 68 games
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct10:45
MarsBet Team 43%KZ TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverOtaker
49% · 43 games43% · 51 game
SpectreFocus
Spectre
Tidehunter
TidehunterMr. Luck
57% · 101 game63% · 10 games
HuskarW1sh-
Huskar
Phoenix
PhoenixLeBronDota
52% · 109 games45% · 24 games
AxeSkyLark
Axe
Pugna
PugnaMitch
49% · 80 games52% · 135 games
Nature's ProphetSsaSpartan
Nature's Prophet
46% · 113 games
Shadow DemonAstral
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 64%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3