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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 16 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 8 games
25%

KZ TEAM

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 16 games
38%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Otaker · 11 games
64%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
250 picks · 423 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
215 picks · 337 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
200 picks · 97 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
200 picks · 187 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
199 picks · 273 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
187 picks · 358 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
177 picks · 507 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total59% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:33
MarsBet Team 43%KZ TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 1:06:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLukas
48% · 179 games51% · 113 games
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckW1sh-
42% · 114 games64% · 164 games
Death ProphetSkyLark
Death Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
46% · 70 games54% · 77 games
RikiSupream^
Riki
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLeBronDota
39% · 65 games55% · 144 games
TechiesAstral
Techies
Phoenix
PhoenixBignum
39% · 114 games62% · 44 games
OracleSsaSpartan
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct32:41
MarsBet Team 43%KZ TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 49:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLukas
49% · 76 games49% · 42 games
Queen of PainSupream^
Queen of Pain
Viper
ViperW1sh-
50% · 8 games50% · 28 games
WeaverOtaker
Weaver
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMr. Luck
25% · 8 games49% · 78 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyBignum
49% · 117 games61% · 54 games
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLeBronDota
40% · 34 games58% · 41 game
LionAstral
Lion
Game 3prediction correct6:28
MarsBet Team 43%KZ TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaLukas
56% · 112 games51% · 136 games
UrsaOtaker
Ursa
Puck
PuckW1sh-
44% · 153 games61% · 268 games
Death ProphetSkyLark
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMr. Luck
46% · 286 games45% · 371 game
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickBignum
49% · 743 games57% · 353 games
ClockwerkAstral
Clockwerk
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernLeBronDota
35% · 16 games49% · 182 games
PugnaSsaSpartan
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 59%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3