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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 17 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 8 games
25%

Level UP

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
86%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 13 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
62%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
42%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 9 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
dEsire · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
272 picks · 393 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
262 picks · 391 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 434 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
221 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
220 picks · 566 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
202 picks · 182 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Level UP
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:13
MarsBet Team 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 27:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
59% · 100 games40% · 79 games
LinaPanda
Lina
Doom
DoomMr. Luck
64% · 142 games46% · 224 games
Ember SpiritTaiga
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerBignum
49% · 44 games37% · 57 games
HoodwinkDelight
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLeBronDota
57% · 74 games
Game 2prediction correct52:47
MarsBet Team 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 58:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainW1sh-
54% · 128 games44% · 38 games
RazorTaiga
Razor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
53% · 72 games51% · 235 games
TinyPanda
Tiny
Techies
TechiesBignum
53% · 173 games53% · 299 games
BatriderDelight
Batrider
Tusk
TuskLeBronDota
41% · 199 games
Game 3prediction missed35:18
MarsBet Team 46%Level UP 54%
The model gave 54% on Level UP — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLukas
48% · 142 games51% · 102 games
InvokerPanda
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritW1sh-
41% · 44 games50% · 157 games
Death ProphetTaiga
Death Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
51% · 70 games54% · 234 games
ClockwerkDelight
Clockwerk
Enchantress
EnchantressLeBronDota
49% · 151 game
Techies
TechiesBignum
49% · 86 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 53%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3