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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
100%
Clinkz
Clinkz
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Mo13ei · 2 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 15 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
pma · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Daze · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Daze · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ri4man · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
416 picks · 200 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 475 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
290 picks · 285 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
286 picks · 467 bans
46%
Morphling
Morphling
278 picks · 518 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 463 bans
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
251 picks · 601 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
248 picks · 455 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:44
MarsBet Team 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 1:04:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMr. Luck
42% · 142 games63% · 183 games
Medusagotthejuice
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMo13ei
48% · 98 games49% · 71 game
Earthshakertoshiyb
Earthshaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingOtaker
40% · 68 games53% · 92 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroLeBronDota
59% · 14 games51% · 39 games
Axepma
Axe
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageJeezy
49% · 95 games54% · 32 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct15:39
MarsBet Team 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeOtaker
46% · 149 games54% · 134 games
Templar Assassintoshiyb
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMo13ei
45% · 112 games58% · 123 games
Slarkgotthejuice
Slark
Tidehunter
TidehunterMr. Luck
41% · 76 games51% · 54 games
Earth SpiritDaze
Earth Spirit
Invoker
InvokerJeezy
53% · 95 games50% · 75 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLeBronDota
44% · 79 games57% · 125 games
Treant ProtectorRiddys
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2