European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 11 games
Magnussignature
pma · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 10 games
Techies
Riddys · 10 games
Dragon Knight
Niku · 9 games
Void Spirit
Ri4man · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
257 picks · 321 bans
Dark Willow
252 picks · 112 bans
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 227 bans
Treant Protector
215 picks · 484 bans
Phoenix
208 picks · 290 bans
Pangolier
200 picks · 397 bans
Muerta
186 picks · 263 bans
Nature's Prophet
186 picks · 450 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:23
MarsBet Team 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidOtaker
Alchemistgotthejuice
Wraith KingMr. Luck
Tidehunterpma
Ancient Apparitionvelheor
Primal BeastNiku
PhoenixLeBronDota
PugnaRiddys
50% · 40 games
MarciDaze
Game 2prediction missed36:21
MarsBet Team 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 47:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightOtaker
Phantom Lancergotthejuice
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
Lycanpma
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
Primal BeastNiku
Banevelheor
WeaverDaze
58% · 98 games
Treant ProtectorRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 51%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2