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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mitch · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mitch · 7 games
43%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 18 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 16 games
69%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 14 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 12 games
25%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Daze · 12 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Niku · 10 games
20%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
277 picks · 442 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
239 picks · 327 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
233 picks · 114 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
225 picks · 333 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
215 picks · 433 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
207 picks · 179 bans
47%
Kunkka
Kunkka
203 picks · 538 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
200 picks · 270 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:23
MarsBet Team 57%Natus Vincere Junior 43%
The model gave 57% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckW1sh-
58% · 118 games52% · 159 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLukas
58% · 125 games42% · 66 games
Marspma
Mars
Razor
RazorPalantimos
48% · 76 games48% · 121 game
LeshracNiku
Leshrac
Chen
ChenLeBronDota
47% · 39 games43% · 213 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskBignum
49% · 253 games53% · 52 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction missed15:40
MarsBet Team 56%Natus Vincere Junior 44%
The model gave 56% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageLukas
51% · 57 games44% · 45 games
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
Troll Warlord
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinW1sh-
53% · 189 games44% · 183 games
Doompma
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
53% · 114 games49% · 127 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Leshrac
LeshracBignum
50% · 130 games52% · 182 games
Nature's ProphetDaze
Nature's Prophet
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
54% · 92 games47% · 45 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 3prediction missed20:39
MarsBet Team 54%Natus Vincere Junior 46%
The model gave 54% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritW1sh-
55% · 181 game42% · 40 games
Pudgegotthejuice
Pudge
Razor
RazorPalantimos
57% · 54 games48% · 264 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Lifestealer
LifestealerLukas
53% · 51 game53% · 34 games
Night Stalkerpma
Night Stalker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLeBronDota
54% · 230 games45% · 207 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Lion
LionBignum
45% · 76 games50% · 47 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3