ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 1:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Old schoolloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 20 games
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 17 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Lion
Bignum · 8 games
Old school
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 432 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 406 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
Lion
224 picks · 202 bans
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 112 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Old school
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
MarsBet Team 78%Old school 22%
The model gave 78% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 31:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 78%
Series resultMarsBet Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1