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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 21 game
57%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 13 games
31%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 10 games
20%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 10 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 10 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 9 games
22%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 19 games
26%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 13 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Rein · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 546 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
310 picks · 233 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
306 picks · 448 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
304 picks · 272 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
273 picks · 425 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
271 picks · 766 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
268 picks · 458 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
265 picks · 647 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total57% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
MarsBet Team 52%SIBE Team 48%
The model gave 52% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLukas
52% · 119 games53% · 214 games
Morphlingряф^^
Morphling
Tiny
TinyW1sh-
47% · 187 games53% · 122 games
Ursanesfeer
Ursa
Snapfire
SnapfireMr. Luck
46% · 200 games47% · 286 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBignum
51% · 188 games50% · 220 games
Lionsunset
Lion
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
51% · 148 games
Game 2prediction missed12:23
MarsBet Team 55%SIBE Team 45%
The model gave 55% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 27:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageLukas
49% · 98 games48% · 181 game
Templar Assassinряф^^
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritW1sh-
53% · 229 games50% · 264 games
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Mars
MarsMr. Luck
51% · 140 games51% · 236 games
SnapfireRein
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixLeBronDota
48% · 218 games48% · 236 games
Tinysunset
Tiny
Techies
TechiesBignum
51% · 232 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 57%
Series resultSIBE Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2