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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team_Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
55%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 7 games
29%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Otaker · 6 games
17%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 6 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
0%

Team_Team

Spectre
Spectresignature
Crystallize · 6 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
EcNart · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Crystallize · 4 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
EcNart · 4 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
EcNart · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 347 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
239 picks · 114 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 474 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
210 picks · 302 bans
45%
Muerta
Muerta
203 picks · 301 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 412 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
195 picks · 197 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
194 picks · 361 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Team_Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Team_Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:33
MarsBet Team 47%Team_Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Team_Team — the game was taken by Team_Team in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerOtaker
45% · 40 games60% · 44 games
SlarkCrystallize
Slark
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMr. Luck
37% · 64 games62% · 46 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanLeBronDota
52% · 7 games52% · 42 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroMitch
43% · 35 games58% · 14 games
ChenEcNart
Chen
Game 2prediction correct40:13
MarsBet Team 51%Team_Team 49%
The model gave 51% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 29:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOtaker
47% · 73 games48% · 105 games
MorphlingCrystallize
Morphling
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMr. Luck
46% · 136 games56% · 59 games
TidehunterInfernal
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenLeBronDota
54% · 32 games54% · 40 games
LinaMoonlight
Lina
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMitch
44% · 46 games54% · 83 games
Treant ProtectorEcNart
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct33:15
MarsBet Team 50%Team_Team 50%
The model gave 50% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerOtaker
48% · 43 games48% · 84 games
TimbersawInfernal
Timbersaw
Wraith King
Wraith KingMr. Luck
59% · 12 games51% · 73 games
SpectreCrystallize
Spectre
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLeBronDota
57% · 142 games40% · 37 games
ZeusMoonlight
Zeus
Jakiro
JakiroMitch
45% · 23 games53% · 26 games
GyrocopterEcNart
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam_Team · 51%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3