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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chikaraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 8 games
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 3 games
33%

Chikara

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
760 picks · 610 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 469 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1005 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 380 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 940 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
394 picks · 598 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
392 picks · 603 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
387 picks · 664 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:40
Matreshka Team 58%Chikara 42%
The model gave 58% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 27:06.
Game 2prediction correct13:39
Matreshka Team 58%Chikara 42%
The model gave 58% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 18:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 58%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2