Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KEFTEMEloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Rubick
Lagoona · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 4 games
Tiny
Lagoona · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
Disruptor
JANTER · 2 games
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
KEFTEME
Disruptor
kickeed · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
PLOV · 1 game
Hoodwink
kickeed · 1 game
Shadow Demon
kickeed · 1 game
Silencer
kickeed · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
PLOV · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
PLOV · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
PLOV · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
797 picks · 551 bans
Tiny
567 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
520 picks · 435 bans
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 731 bans
Death Prophet
417 picks · 815 bans
Snapfire
404 picks · 290 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 853 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:36
Matreshka Team 49%KEFTEME 51%
The model gave 51% on KEFTEME — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 45:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerRetsu
SniperPLOV
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
Undyingkickeed
HoodwinkLagoona
ClockwerkJANTER
Game 2prediction correct48:20
Matreshka Team 50%KEFTEME 50%
The model gave 50% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaRetsu
BloodseekerPLOV
Marsegxrdemxn
Disruptorkickeed
TinyLagoona
RubickJANTER
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 55%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2