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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
dark · 3 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Lagoona · 2 games
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Retsu · 2 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
dark · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
meLes · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
0%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
29%
Lion
Lionsignature
so bad · 7 games
71%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 6 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
forcemajor · 6 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Malr1ne · 6 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 443 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
241 picks · 379 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
229 picks · 302 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
215 picks · 101 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
212 picks · 199 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
192 picks · 361 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 520 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:24
Matreshka Team 42%Nemiga Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 39:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoNattyNarwhal
56% · 5 games61% · 37 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDkFogas
45% · 96 games43% · 62 games
Faceless Voidv1olent-
Faceless Void
Clockwerk
Clockwerkdark
57% · 174 games56% · 49 games
Magnuszenica
Magnus
25% · 12 games
Winter WyvernHellscream
Winter Wyvern
45% · 115 games
Nature's Prophetaik
Nature's Prophet
Game 2prediction correct17:40
Matreshka Team 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNattyNarwhal
50% · 165 games44% · 20 games
Anti-Magev1olent-
Anti-Mage
Pudge
PudgeDkFogas
46% · 32 games46% · 70 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Chen
Chendark
62% · 41 game43% · 64 games
Magnuszenica
Magnus
56% · 40 games
EarthshakerHellscream
Earthshaker
51% · 44 games
Lionaik
Lion
Game 3prediction correct30:33
Matreshka Team 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
48% · 287 games48% · 167 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDkFogas
50% · 221 game46% · 200 games
Primal Beastnicky`cool
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidendark
51% · 104 games47% · 101 game
Enigmazenica
Enigma
61% · 71 game
EarthshakerHellscream
Earthshaker
52% · 73 games
Lionaik
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3