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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 8 games
38%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 3 games
33%

SIBE Team

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
nesfeer · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Arti_Shock · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
klassnokruto · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
erase · 1 game
0%
Techies
Techies
y0nd · 1 game
0%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
744 picks · 607 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
550 picks · 477 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
423 picks · 1021 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
400 picks · 374 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 972 bans
51%
Doom
Doom
396 picks · 651 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
390 picks · 606 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
378 picks · 205 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:21
Matreshka Team 57%SIBE Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerRetsu
49% · 17 games55% · 73 games
Magnusegxrdemxn
Magnus
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
51% · 51 game44% · 90 games
LichArti_Shock
Lich
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HuntermeLes
46% · 14 games
Enchantress
EnchantressLagoona
54% · 36 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidendark
50% · 45 games
Game 2prediction correct38:28
Matreshka Team 56%SIBE Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 48:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoommeLes
47% · 80 games55% · 53 games
Earthshakeregxrdemxn
Earthshaker
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRetsu
46% · 41 game52% · 144 games
UndyingArti_Shock
Undying
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
40% · 39 games
Clinkz
ClinkzLagoona
55% · 7 games
Jakiro
Jakirodark
53% · 30 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 62%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2