The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Chuvash · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 30 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 21 game
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 747 bans
Centaur Warrunner
430 picks · 641 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 760 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
356 picks · 1045 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 742 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:37
Matreshka Team 54%SIBE Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 40:13.
Game 2prediction missed33:27
Matreshka Team 54%SIBE Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 40:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 54%
Series resultSIBE Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2