The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MerkurX Teamloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UGunranked gamerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MerkurX Team
No games played over 6 months.
unranked gamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 742 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 627 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 745 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1027 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 731 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% MerkurX Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% unranked gamers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MerkurX Team 49%unranked gamers 51%
The model gave 51% on unranked gamers — the game was taken by MerkurX Team.
Game 2prediction correct
MerkurX Team 49%unranked gamers 51%
The model gave 51% on unranked gamers — the game was taken by unranked gamers.
Game 3prediction correct
MerkurX Team 49%unranked gamers 51%
The model gave 51% on unranked gamers — the game was taken by unranked gamers.
Model check result
Model favoriteunranked gamers · 51%
Series resultunranked gamers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3