Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Meta4Proloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Meta4Pro
Pangolier
ZipZaper · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
No Bounty Hunter
Rubicksignature
ntakii · 6 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 2 games
Bloodseeker
BliNcc · 2 games
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
119 picks · 259 bans
Mars
113 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
103 picks · 84 bans
Void Spirit
97 picks · 150 bans
Phoenix
93 picks · 96 bans
Rubick
78 picks · 36 bans
Keeper of the Light
70 picks · 137 bans
Nyx Assassin
70 picks · 262 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Meta4Pro 46%No Bounty Hunter 54%
The model gave 54% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 54%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1