Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Meta4Proloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spider Pigzswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Meta4Pro
Bounty Hunter
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Pangolier
ZipZaper · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Spider Pigzs
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 3 games
Rubick
dnz · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
ThuG · 2 games
Brewmaster
Mitch · 2 games
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
71 picks · 155 bans
Puck
67 picks · 172 bans
Earth Spirit
59 picks · 52 bans
Void Spirit
53 picks · 104 bans
Rubick
48 picks · 26 bans
Monkey King
46 picks · 104 bans
Undying
46 picks · 70 bans
Phoenix
45 picks · 59 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 38%
Hero pool strength65% Meta4Pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Meta4Pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:32
Meta4Pro 61%Spider Pigzs 39%
The model gave 61% on Meta4Pro — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 39:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverLowskill
Faceless VoidThuG
PangolierZipZaper
PuckNo!ob
little data
Death ProphetMitch
little data
Shadow Shamandnz
little data
BrewmasterLeBronDota
Game 2prediction missed12:27
Meta4Pro 57%Spider Pigzs 43%
The model gave 57% on Meta4Pro — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeLowskill
MedusaThuG
MarsZipZaper
Death ProphetNo!ob
50% · 6 games
UnderlordMitch
45% · 12 games
Shadow Shamandnz
60% · 6 games
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteMeta4Pro · 66%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2