Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Meta4Prowin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SDSyrian Dreamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Meta4Pro
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
Lion
Niqua · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Clockwerk
Niqua · 1 game
Syrian Dream
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
388 picks · 861 bans
Void Spirit
362 picks · 517 bans
Mars
314 picks · 564 bans
Death Prophet
282 picks · 496 bans
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 239 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 157 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 517 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Meta4Pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Meta4Pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteMeta4Pro · 51%
Series resultMeta4Pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect