?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Midas Clubwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AcatSukiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Midas Club

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Hyko · 3 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hyko · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
FCR · 2 games
100%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 2 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Costabile · 2 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
4dr · 2 games
50%

AcatSuki

Mirana
Mirana
Kiri · 3 games
67%
Sven
Sven
NeKo · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Prada · 2 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
NeKo · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Kiri · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Adrx · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Kiri · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 644 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 612 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
375 picks · 306 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 777 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
350 picks · 352 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
344 picks · 402 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Midas Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:27
Midas Club 56%AcatSuki 44%
The model gave 56% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Midas Club in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCostabile
51% · 151 game49% · 261 game
BatriderAdrx
Batrider
Timbersaw
Timbersaw4dr
50% · 225 games54% · 45 games
PudgeNeKo
Pudge
Bristleback
BristlebackFCR
50% · 23 games51% · 205 games
Storm SpiritRobo-Z
Storm Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHyko
47% · 217 games50% · 169 games
TinyKiri
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWij
49% · 180 games50% · 116 games
GrimstrokePrada
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct43:29
Midas Club 57%AcatSuki 43%
The model gave 57% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Midas Club in 52:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCostabile
54% · 78 games40% · 40 games
Drow RangerNeKo
Drow Ranger
Primal Beast
Primal Beast4dr
48% · 245 games45% · 158 games
KunkkaRobo-Z
Kunkka
Doom
DoomFCR
55% · 244 games53% · 251 game
TinyAdrx
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHyko
43% · 140 games53% · 206 games
ClockwerkPrada
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWij
50% · 175 games55% · 227 games
MiranaKiri
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteMidas Club · 62%
Series resultMidas Club 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2