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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Midas Clubloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Cuyes Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Midas Club

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Wij · 13 games
62%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 10 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
FCR · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Wij · 6 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 5 games
40%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
25%

Cuyes Esports

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 2 games
100%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Parker · 2 games
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Parker · 2 games
100%
Tusk
Tusk
Matthew · 2 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
ILICH- · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Matthew · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 680 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
425 picks · 195 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 553 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 420 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 596 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
352 picks · 168 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 856 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 643 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:29
Midas Club 42%Cuyes Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Midas Club in 1:12:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCostabile
46% · 65 games54% · 57 games
BroodmotherILICH-
Broodmother
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
49% · 107 games47% · 227 games
TinyParker
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordFCR
58% · 20 gameslittle data
Ogre MagiMjz
Ogre Magi
Techies
TechiesHyko
50% · 89 games
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorKingrd
43% · 3 games
Game 2prediction correct22:37
Midas Club 40%Cuyes Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidFCR
45% · 18 games58% · 145 games
Faceless VoidParker
Faceless Void
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCostabile
41% · 66 games50% · 28 games
UnderlordILICH-
Underlord
Zeus
Zeus4dr
48% · 57 games50% · 103 games
Crystal MaidenMjz
Crystal Maiden
Tusk
TuskHyko
41% · 74 games
Weaver
WeaverKingrd
56% · 61 game
Game 3prediction correct28:35
Midas Club 42%Cuyes Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by Cuyes Esports in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCostabile
52% · 48 games53% · 274 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
47% · 205 games51% · 149 games
Dark SeerILICH-
Dark Seer
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFCR
43% · 114 games51% · 226 games
Crystal MaidenMjz
Crystal Maiden
Tiny
TinyHyko
52% · 215 games
Bane
BaneKingrd
48% · 67 games
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 65%
Series resultCuyes Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3