Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Midas Clubwin 2:1series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Estar Backsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Midas Club
No games played over 6 months.
Estar Backs
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
Techies
Michael · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
StingeR · 4 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
342 picks · 336 bans
Centaur Warrunner
339 picks · 530 bans
Mars
324 picks · 490 bans
Techies
315 picks · 250 bans
Batrider
302 picks · 581 bans
Hoodwink
300 picks · 177 bans
Tiny
287 picks · 263 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:37
Midas Club 23%Estar Backs 77%
The model gave 77% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Midas Club in 1:12:40.
Game 2prediction correct5:28
Midas Club 23%Estar Backs 77%
The model gave 77% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 26:09.
Game 3prediction missed21:45
Midas Club 23%Estar Backs 77%
The model gave 77% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Midas Club in 52:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 77%
Series resultMidas Club 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3