PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Midas Club
Crystal Maidensignature
Wij · 6 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
Techies
Hyko · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Wij · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 3 games
Mirana
Hyko · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
4dr · 3 games
Windrangeroften banned
FCR · 3 games
Leviatan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
426 picks · 695 bans
Mars
404 picks · 653 bans
Techies
402 picks · 324 bans
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
Tiny
385 picks · 479 bans
Batrider
384 picks · 848 bans
Vengeful Spirit
360 picks · 359 bans
Rubick
354 picks · 166 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Leviatan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
Midas Club 46%Leviatan 54%
The model gave 54% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenCostabile
Brewmasterkpii
Keeper of the Light4dr
InvokerStojkov
SlardarFCR
LifestealerSammyboy
TechiesHyko
RubickTaiga
Crystal MaidenWij
Game 2prediction correct23:37
Midas Club 47%Leviatan 53%
The model gave 53% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 53:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus4dr
LifestealerSammyboy
WeaverCostabile
Razorkpii
DoomFCR
KunkkaStojkov
TechiesHyko
Earth SpiritTaiga
Crystal MaidenWij
Model check result
Model favoriteLeviatan · 61%
Series resultLeviatan 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2