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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Midas Clubwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Leviatanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Midas Club

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 7 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 4 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wij · 3 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Wij · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Costabile · 3 games
33%

Leviatan

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 3 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 3 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
kpii · 2 games
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Sammyboy · 2 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Sammyboy · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sammyboy · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 728 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 685 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
420 picks · 337 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 533 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 891 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
384 picks · 174 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 182 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Leviatan
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Leviatan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:8
Midas Club 44%Leviatan 56%
The model gave 56% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Midas Club in 45:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCostabile
52% · 105 games50% · 240 games
Templar AssassinStojkov
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFCR
47% · 86 games52% · 164 games
LifestealerSammyboy
Lifestealer
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
53% · 197 games46% · 127 games
Razorkpii
Razor
Techies
TechiesHyko
52% · 138 games48% · 94 games
Earth SpiritTaiga
Earth Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWij
50% · 99 games
Game 2prediction correct21:38
Midas Club 45%Leviatan 55%
The model gave 55% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCostabile
64% · 99 games49% · 214 games
Templar AssassinStojkov
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
Pangolier4dr
52% · 269 games46% · 176 games
Kunkkakpii
Kunkka
Axe
AxeFCR
30% · 27 games47% · 171 game
BloodseekerSammyboy
Bloodseeker
Techies
TechiesHyko
51% · 208 games49% · 176 games
Vengeful SpiritTaiga
Vengeful Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenWij
52% · 134 games
Game 3prediction missed33:29
Midas Club 45%Leviatan 55%
The model gave 55% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Midas Club in 1:00:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCostabile
50% · 158 games49% · 52 games
Chaos KnightSammyboy
Chaos Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawFCR
49% · 107 games47% · 112 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Mars
Mars4dr
48% · 128 games50% · 206 games
Kunkkakpii
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickHyko
54% · 160 games51% · 273 games
Shadow DemonTaiga
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
DisruptorWij
50% · 90 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLeviatan · 61%
Series resultMidas Club 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3