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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mideng Dreamerloss 0:2
series probability
4%96%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mideng Dreamer

Bristleback
Bristleback
BEYOND · 2 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
lou · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
7e · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
100%
Largo
Largooften banned
Freeze · 1 game
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Yumeyume · 1 game
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Undyne_ · 1 game
100%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
y` · 18 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
73%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 10 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
shiro · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 10 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
y` · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
633 picks · 695 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
512 picks · 450 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 394 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
407 picks · 363 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1078 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 806 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 563 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Mideng Dreamer
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:18
Mideng Dreamer 17%Vici Gaming 83%
The model gave 83% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 20:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
49% · 393 games58% · 274 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Muerta
MuertaYumeyume
44% · 201 game57% · 207 games
Windrangershiro
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void Spirit7e
38% · 223 games53% · 253 games
SlardarFaith_bian
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixUndyne_
49% · 220 games51% · 35 games
IoXinQ
Io
53% · 268 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct4:24
Mideng Dreamer 18%Vici Gaming 82%
The model gave 82% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 23:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierBEYOND
46% · 284 games43% · 341 game
Beastmastershiro
Beastmaster
Slark
SlarkYumeyume
59% · 60 games54% · 275 games
BatriderFaith_bian
Batrider
Slardar
Slardar7e
53% · 212 games45% · 155 games
Monkey KingXm
Monkey King
Jakiro
JakiroUndyne_
48% · 441 game42% · 120 games
Ancient Apparitiony`
Ancient Apparition
63% · 106 games
LargoXinQ
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 96%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2