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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSwin 2:0
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 3 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 3 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
bottega · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bottega · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
elmo^^ · 2 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
prblms · 2 games
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
elmo^^ · 2 games
100%

Roar Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 11 games
27%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LOyd · 10 games
30%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 10 games
30%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
22%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
14%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
生死 · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 578 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 402 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 400 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
443 picks · 491 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
429 picks · 210 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
407 picks · 253 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1035 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 875 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% MODUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:21
MODUS 40%Roar Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by MODUS in 55:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterelmo^^
44% · 417 games51% · 722 games
PuckButterflyEffect
Puck
Muerta
Muertabottega
56% · 269 games52% · 571 game
Tinyukiyo
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void Spiritxn丶e
46% · 478 games51% · 379 games
Slardar生死
Slardar
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
51% · 329 games51% · 200 games
RubickCatYou
Rubick
Tusk
Tuskprblms
49% · 582 games51% · 203 games
EnchantressLOyd
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed28:13
MODUS 42%Roar Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by MODUS in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordelmo^^
50% · 161 game59% · 250 games
Bristlebackukiyo
Bristleback
Tiny
Tinybottega
49% · 288 games51% · 38 games
Night Stalker生死
Night Stalker
Pangolier
Pangolierxn丶e
41% · 246 games50% · 337 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernprblms
56% · 8 games35% · 39 games
IoCatYou
Io
Rubick
Rubickmrls
57% · 76 games54% · 115 games
Treant ProtectorLOyd
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 66%
Series resultMODUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2