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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
elmo^^ · 6 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
mrls · 5 games
80%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
bottega · 5 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 5 games
20%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
elmo^^ · 5 games
80%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 42 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 37 games
49%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 36 games
39%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 35 games
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 32 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 23 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 275 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 563 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
442 picks · 347 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 351 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 327 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
348 picks · 832 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 839 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
329 picks · 175 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
MODUS 37%Rune Eaters 63%
The model gave 63% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 19:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinybottega
49% · 476 games57% · 193 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierMirele
47% · 311 games53% · 412 games
PuckEthereal
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal Beastelmo^^
46% · 213 games52% · 150 games
KunkkaAnkou
Kunkka
Silencer
Silencerkasane
45% · 146 games51% · 407 games
Hoodwinkani-san
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeprblms
49% · 64 games51% · 48 games
Ogre MagiKidaro
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct0:1
MODUS 40%Rune Eaters 60%
The model gave 60% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 11:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinybottega
47% · 472 games56% · 66 games
Death ProphetEthereal
Death Prophet
Tidehunter
Tidehunterelmo^^
47% · 284 games55% · 233 games
UnderlordAnkou
Underlord
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirele
43% · 321 game51% · 283 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Rubick
Rubickprblms
47% · 235 games57% · 519 games
Hoodwinkani-san
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
Ringmasterkasane
50% · 413 games46% · 624 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 67%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2