?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSwin 2:0
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
elmo^^ · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
bottega · 2 games
50%

Team Lynx

Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 20 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 18 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 572 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 415 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 410 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
457 picks · 522 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
450 picks · 228 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1034 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 898 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total88% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MODUS 12%Team Lynx 88%
The model gave 88% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by MODUS.
Game 2prediction missed
MODUS 12%Team Lynx 88%
The model gave 88% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by MODUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 88%
Series resultMODUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2