Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 1:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
D2 Hustlersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
680 picks · 430 bans
Tusk
583 picks · 540 bans
Tiny
556 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
486 picks · 545 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 383 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 209 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 534 bans
Nature's Prophet
344 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total57% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:18
Monaspa 57%D2 Hustlers 43%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 1:03:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 57%
Series resultMonaspa 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1