Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere
Rubick
xsvampire · 14 games
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 13 games
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 11 games
Silencer
Solo · 10 games
Visageoften banned
laise · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
932 picks · 636 bans
Tiny
651 picks · 455 bans
Nature's Prophet
558 picks · 888 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
535 picks · 540 bans
Snapfire
499 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
481 picks · 1052 bans
Clockwerk
454 picks · 332 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:37
Monaspa 63%Natus Vincere 37%
The model gave 63% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:48.
Game 2prediction missed51:24
Monaspa 63%Natus Vincere 37%
The model gave 63% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 63%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2