BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
Bristlebacksignature
Kiritych · 6 games
Centaur Warrunner
Corrupted · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Kiritych · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Hellscream · 5 games
Phoenix
Hellscream · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
Techies
Hellscream · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 285 bans
Marci
284 picks · 530 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 243 bans
Undying
258 picks · 451 bans
Pangolier
238 picks · 491 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 539 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 315 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:36
Monaspa 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:48.
Game 2prediction missed45:8
Monaspa 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:40.
Game 3prediction missed11:33
Monaspa 60%Nemiga Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 60%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3