Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 9 games
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 7 games
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 7 games
Tinysignature
OmaR · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
515 picks · 350 bans
Tusk
490 picks · 483 bans
Tiny
479 picks · 423 bans
Treant Protector
362 picks · 417 bans
Mirana
355 picks · 342 bans
Snapfire
306 picks · 161 bans
Ember Spirit
281 picks · 689 bans
Pangolier
268 picks · 634 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 86%
Hero pool strength68% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total67% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:26
Monaspa 33%PSG Quest 67%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 37:06.
Game 2prediction correct41:32
Monaspa 33%PSG Quest 67%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 43:40.
Game 3prediction correct28:42
Monaspa 33%PSG Quest 67%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 46:48.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 67%
Series resultMonaspa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3