Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 16 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 12 games
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 12 games
Tinysignature
No!ob · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
736 picks · 463 bans
Treant Protector
526 picks · 571 bans
Tusk
525 picks · 451 bans
Tiny
523 picks · 378 bans
Nature's Prophet
407 picks · 577 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 252 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 601 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 731 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 79%
Hero pool strength64% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:22
Monaspa 42%PSG Quest 58%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 38:23.
Game 2prediction correct21:32
Monaspa 42%PSG Quest 58%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 46:43.
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 58%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2