European Pro League Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RISE Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
RISE Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 318 bans
Tusk
292 picks · 274 bans
Marci
273 picks · 518 bans
Undying
249 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 534 bans
Primal Beast
225 picks · 573 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 332 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 126 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Monaspa 69%RISE Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa.
Game 2prediction correct
Monaspa 69%RISE Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 69%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2