Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Ukraineloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Team Ukraine
Dark Willow
QBFY · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Batyuk · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
lightless · 1 game
Clockwerk
EcNart · 1 game
Enchantress
EcNart · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Iceberg · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
lightless · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
xn丶e · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
872 picks · 607 bans
Tiny
622 picks · 432 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
528 picks · 432 bans
Nature's Prophet
521 picks · 839 bans
Snapfire
466 picks · 324 bans
Death Prophet
462 picks · 970 bans
Clockwerk
417 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Team Ukraine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:50
Monaspa 80%Team Ukraine 20%
The model gave 80% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Team Ukraine in 41:21.
Game 2prediction missed19:40
Monaspa 80%Team Ukraine 20%
The model gave 80% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Team Ukraine in 39:19.
Game 3prediction missed36:16
Monaspa 80%Team Ukraine 20%
The model gave 80% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Team Ukraine in 26:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 80%
Series resultMonaspa 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3