Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 26 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
Doomsignature
33 · 19 games
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 17 games
Tusk
Nine · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
852 picks · 600 bans
Tiny
612 picks · 422 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 541 bans
Tusk
519 picks · 428 bans
Nature's Prophet
509 picks · 816 bans
Death Prophet
457 picks · 938 bans
Snapfire
454 picks · 313 bans
Clockwerk
405 picks · 293 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
Monaspa 17%Tundra Esports 83%
The model gave 83% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:10.
Game 2prediction correct32:6
Monaspa 17%Tundra Esports 83%
The model gave 83% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 83%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2