Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MoneyMakers
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 16 games
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
Batridersignature
Egor · 8 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lukas · 8 games
cybercats
Techiesoften banned
jesv · 17 games
Rubick
jesv · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 11 games
Disruptor
forcemajor · 11 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Alberkaaa · 11 games
Doomoften banned
zenica · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
jesv · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
689 picks · 475 bans
Techies
600 picks · 638 bans
Doom
569 picks · 1111 bans
Disruptor
527 picks · 496 bans
Beastmaster
519 picks · 1232 bans
Ember Spirit
479 picks · 1042 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 677 bans
Pangolier
450 picks · 918 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:27
MoneyMakers 48%cybercats 52%
The model gave 52% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 55:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainEgor
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
MorphlingLukas
Invokeryoung G
Spirit BreakerBb3px
BeastmasterDkFogas
TechiesBignum
Snapfireforcemajor
UndyingCeMaTheSlayeR
ChenDukalis
Game 2prediction correct11:17
MoneyMakers 48%cybercats 52%
The model gave 52% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritEgor
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
MorphlingLukas
Necrophosyoung G
Spirit BreakerBb3px
LycanDkFogas
PhoenixCeMaTheSlayeR
ChenDukalis
TechiesBignum
Rubickforcemajor
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 53%
Series resultcybercats 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2