Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakerswin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MoneyMakers
Rubick
Bignum · 18 games
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Matreshka Team
Rubick
Lagoona · 9 games
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 8 games
Ursasignature
Retsu · 8 games
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Lagoona · 5 games
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 5 games
Void Spirit
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
751 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
612 picks · 534 bans
Doom
552 picks · 1092 bans
Beastmaster
547 picks · 1329 bans
Techies
479 picks · 538 bans
Pangolier
470 picks · 961 bans
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1150 bans
Enchantress
450 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:17
MoneyMakers 43%Matreshka Team 57%
The model gave 57% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerLukas
Naga SirenRetsu
Templar AssassinEgor
AxemeLes
UnderlordBb3px
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
TechiesCeMaTheSlayeR
Dark WillowLagoona
Spirit BreakerBignum
Shadow Demondark
Game 2prediction missed
MoneyMakers 41%Matreshka Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by MoneyMakers.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 59%
Series resultMoneyMakers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2