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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 14 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 12 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 11 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 8 games
38%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Egor · 8 games
63%

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 9 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
Ri4man · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Daze · 5 games
40%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 5 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
gotthejuice · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
987 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
638 picks · 464 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
579 picks · 930 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 408 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 410 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1211 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
498 picks · 385 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:19
MoneyMakers 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomBb3px
48% · 255 games49% · 136 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Slark
SlarkLukas
52% · 135 games54% · 64 games
RikiRi4man
Riki
Puck
PuckEgor
52% · 261 game49% · 251 game
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixCeMaTheSlayeR
48% · 128 games49% · 411 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Techies
TechiesBignum
50% · 93 games61% · 10 games
OracleRiddys
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct19:15
MoneyMakers 51%Natus Vincere Junior 49%
The model gave 51% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaEgor
54% · 68 games45% · 87 games
Keeper of the LightRi4man
Keeper of the Light
Doom
DoomBb3px
52% · 223 games53% · 75 games
Bloodseekergotthejuice
Bloodseeker
Slark
SlarkLukas
44% · 102 games46% · 218 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorCeMaTheSlayeR
50% · 243 games51% · 259 games
MiranaDaze
Mirana
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBignum
54% · 16 games57% · 13 games
OracleRiddys
Oracle
Game 3prediction missed14:32
MoneyMakers 52%Natus Vincere Junior 48%
The model gave 52% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistEgor
52% · 62 games52% · 128 games
Naga Sirengotthejuice
Naga Siren
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
51% · 284 games47% · 198 games
Dragon KnightRi4man
Dragon Knight
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerLukas
55% · 102 games47% · 184 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickBignum
44% · 453 games51% · 325 games
MiranaRiddys
Mirana
Dazzle
DazzleCeMaTheSlayeR
49% · 62 games53% · 128 games
Skywrath MageDaze
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 52%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3