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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 11 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
38%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Egor · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
43%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 15 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 14 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
77%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
so bad · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 11 games
82%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hellscream · 10 games
90%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Kiritych · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
996 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 472 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
589 picks · 935 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 407 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 416 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
528 picks · 371 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1209 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
504 picks · 383 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:30
MoneyMakers 35%Nemiga Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLukas
46% · 90 gameslittle data
Muertav1olent-
Muerta
Timbersaw
TimbersawBb3px
51% · 125 games49% · 266 games
Death ProphetMalr1ne
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBignum
43% · 184 games57% · 72 games
Dark SeerCorrupted
Dark Seer
Invoker
InvokerEgor
50% · 95 games46% · 16 games
Bounty HunterHellscream
Bounty Hunter
Disruptor
DisruptorCeMaTheSlayeR
54% · 176 games50% · 316 games
Clockwerkso bad
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed44:26
MoneyMakers 38%Nemiga Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomBb3px
52% · 122 games44% · 82 games
Juggernautv1olent-
Juggernaut
Muerta
MuertaLukas
57% · 3 games49% · 171 game
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Puck
PuckEgor
55% · 119 games53% · 87 games
RikiMalr1ne
Riki
Mirana
MiranaCeMaTheSlayeR
53% · 175 games44% · 44 games
TechiesHellscream
Techies
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
44% · 33 games48% · 68 games
Lichso bad
Lich
Game 3prediction correct14:33
MoneyMakers 35%Nemiga Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 26:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkLukas
55% · 159 games47% · 42 games
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
Phantom Lancer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetEgor
45% · 357 games50% · 222 games
BatriderMalr1ne
Batrider
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBb3px
47% · 71 game51% · 224 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixCeMaTheSlayeR
51% · 115 games52% · 19 games
Bounty HunterHellscream
Bounty Hunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBignum
52% · 352 games50% · 547 games
Rubickso bad
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 77%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3