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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakerswin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Sorryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 13 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bignum · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bb3px · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Egor · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
40%

No Sorry

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
BLACKARXANGEL · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BLACKARXANGEL · 12 games
58%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
Dodren · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Blizzy · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
921 picks · 628 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
648 picks · 454 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
551 picks · 880 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 435 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
536 picks · 543 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
494 picks · 333 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
475 picks · 1041 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
448 picks · 326 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:11
MoneyMakers 45%No Sorry 55%
The model gave 55% on No Sorry — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerLukas
41% · 146 games56% · 130 games
UrsaDinozavrik
Ursa
Zeus
ZeusEgor
48% · 154 games46% · 249 games
Death ProphetDodren
Death Prophet
Venomancer
VenomancerBb3px
49% · 48 games53% · 127 games
TimbersawDominic
Timbersaw
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
58% · 298 games44% · 167 games
Hoodwinky0nd
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
60% · 192 games43% · 165 games
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed40:21
MoneyMakers 42%No Sorry 58%
The model gave 58% on No Sorry — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerLukas
43% · 152 games54% · 93 games
SniperDinozavrik
Sniper
Zeus
ZeusEgor
48% · 177 games53% · 244 games
PuckDodren
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
42% · 85 games54% · 357 games
Death ProphetDominic
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickCeMaTheSlayeR
48% · 558 games50% · 314 games
Clockwerky0nd
Clockwerk
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
61% · 230 games45% · 194 games
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 64%
Series resultMoneyMakers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2