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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 11 games
36%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Egor · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lukas · 8 games
50%

SIBE Team

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
38%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 5 games
20%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 5 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 4 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 476 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
596 picks · 637 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
568 picks · 1111 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
535 picks · 498 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
523 picks · 1231 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
474 picks · 1047 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
455 picks · 917 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:31
MoneyMakers 56%SIBE Team 44%
The model gave 56% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 45:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLukas
50% · 319 games43% · 224 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEgor
49% · 222 games54% · 318 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBb3px
54% · 150 games50% · 280 games
Doomklassnokruto
Doom
Enigma
EnigmaBignum
59% · 237 games45% · 521 game
Rubickvelheor
Rubick
Undying
UndyingCeMaTheSlayeR
47% · 415 games
Game 2prediction missed6:23
MoneyMakers 56%SIBE Team 44%
The model gave 56% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 31:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLukas
51% · 236 games45% · 173 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawEgor
49% · 154 games51% · 203 games
Primal Beasterase
Primal Beast
Enigma
EnigmaBb3px
60% · 168 games53% · 83 games
Dark Seerklassnokruto
Dark Seer
Pugna
PugnaBignum
50% · 106 games43% · 304 games
Undyingvelheor
Undying
Lich
LichCeMaTheSlayeR
50% · 99 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 60%
Series resultSIBE Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2