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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakerswin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Egor · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 9 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Bignum · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
22%
Techies
Techies
Bignum · 9 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
50%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 4 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
0%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 3 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
rue · 2 games
0%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
rue · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Satanic · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 332 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
244 picks · 114 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 474 bans
61%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 219 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
211 picks · 295 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 376 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 433 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
190 picks · 285 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 36%
Hero pool strength59% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
MoneyMakers 54%Yellow Submarine 46%
The model gave 54% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 31:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaEgor
51% · 82 games52% · 50 games
MuertaSatanic
Muerta
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLukas
49% · 132 games57% · 18 games
Lone DruidpJonn
Lone Druid
Snapfire
SnapfireCeMaTheSlayeR
52% · 153 games48% · 92 games
Magnuserase
Magnus
Bane
BaneBignum
58% · 20 games42% · 129 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
50% · 98 games
Skywrath Magerue
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed28:34
MoneyMakers 54%Yellow Submarine 46%
The model gave 54% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 53:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLukas
51% · 130 games48% · 93 games
Templar AssassinSatanic
Templar Assassin
Lina
LinaEgor
51% · 98 games45% · 51 game
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Centaur Warrunner
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionCeMaTheSlayeR
60% · 64 games47% · 54 games
Invokererase
Invoker
Bane
BaneBignum
54% · 24 games46% · 75 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
49% · 43 games
Lichaik
Lich
Game 3prediction correct30:25
MoneyMakers 54%Yellow Submarine 46%
The model gave 54% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaLukas
44% · 79 games59% · 80 games
SlarkSatanic
Slark
Timbersaw
TimbersawEgor
43% · 146 games50% · 80 games
LycanpJonn
Lycan
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
50% · 258 games40% · 98 games
Magnuserase
Magnus
Bane
BaneBignum
46% · 39 games64% · 87 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
58% · 177 games
Treant Protectoraik
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 59%
Series resultMoneyMakers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3