IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Монголияwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Индонезияloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Монголия
Phantom Assassin
Ksh · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Leshrac
Young PH · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Индонезия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
463 picks · 227 bans
Techies
443 picks · 479 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 657 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 602 bans
Morphling
333 picks · 695 bans
Timbersaw
326 picks · 766 bans
Undying
309 picks · 516 bans
Doom
304 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Монголия
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Монголия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:37
Монголия 54%Индонезия 46%
The model gave 54% on Монголия — the game was taken by Индонезия in 58:53.
Game 2prediction missed17:31
Монголия 54%Индонезия 46%
The model gave 54% on Монголия — the game was taken by Индонезия in 32:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteМонголия · 54%
Series resultМонголия 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2